Is Jordan The Key To Middle East Peace?

There is growing recognition that the two-state solution as promoted in the Oslo Accords is a failing process, as it's lead to increased violence and greater corruption and poverty for the Palestinians. As such, alternative ideas are getting greater consideration and attention. One such idea is an old one that is going through a kind of rebirth...a Jordanian/Palestinian confederacy.

The idea of a confederation between Jordan and the Palestinian territories is not a new one. Former King Hussein of Jordan himself used to say that "Jordan is Palestine and Palestine is Jordan" in the 1950-1960's. The Palestinian National Council approved a resolution proposing a Palestinian-Jordanian federation in 1984. On February 11, 1985, Yassir Arafat and then King Hussein of Jordan reached an oral agreement on a confederation of their territories, which was never signed. Since 2004, some Palestinian academics and politicians have been discussing ideas for a renewed bilateral relationship with Jordan.

So why now? What are the benefits?

First of all, growing corruption and instability in the West Bank and Gaza threatens the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, but the security of Israel and Jordan as well. The growing influence of extremist groups like Hamas (who now governs Gaza) and Al Qaeda is a regional concern and not just a threat to Israel. Jordan's Ambassador to Israel, Dr. Ma'ruf al-Bakhit said in a March 2005 interview that "the paradigm of a two-state solution (Palestine and Israel) does not bring about stability. We can go for that, but from there the confronation will continue."

King Abdullah's wife, Rana, is of Palestinian descent and from Nablus. This has lead to a greater inclusion and integration of Jordan's Palestinian citizens (approximately 70% of Jordan's total population) into the countries economy and overall fabric.

Unlike Arafat, current Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has close ties with King Abdullah and the Jordanian government and maintains a home in Amman.

There exist close family ties between West Bank towns like Nablus and Hebron with East Bank towns such as Salt and Karak. It is actually considered easier to travel between the west and east banks of the Jordan River than from the northern part of Jordan to its southern territories.

King Abdullah's "Jordan First" plan to build the economy and decentralize government with local councils enfranchises the Palestinian's of Jordan. Under this plan, it would be much easier to incorporate the West Bank and possibly Gaza as additional autonomous regions to the three divisions in Jordan already being proposed.

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the isolation of Syria, Jordan is growing as a regional player in the Middle East. It's stability and prosperity is on the rise. It's capital city of Amman is recognized as the Arab Middle East's most stable major city that serves as an important center for Iraqis, Syrians, West Bank Palestinians, Turks and Egyptians. This compares to high-unemployment and the criminal behavior of street gangs in the Palestinian territories and the corruption of the Palestinian Authority, which is why a growing number of prominent Palestinians are reconsidering a federated arrangement with Jordan.

A federated Jordan/Palestine also fits in well with the limited Palestinian state proposed by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that bans the Palestinians from having a standing army, or air force. It's better to have Jordanian troops on Israel's border than armed Palestinian militias. Jordan is after all Israel's closest and friendliest neighbor.

A federated Jordan/Palestine unifies Palestinians on both sides of the Jordan River and guarantees the ruling Hashemites as the protector of Jerusalem's Muslim Holy Sites. This provides greater temperment and stability, as compared to when Arafat appointed radical Sheiks who incited the Palestinians to rioting with extremist rhetoric.

Tourism to area Biblical sites would grow with the increased stability which would enhance the economies of all three peoples in the region.

This could be the first step towards a BeNeLux, or Nafta style trade federation between Israel, Jordan and the Palestinians. Historically, Jordan has relied on Israel to protect it from a hostile takeover by either Saddam Hussein's Iraq, or Syria. A greater alliance between the territories east and west of the Jordan River would enhance the areas overall security.

Currently, a model for a Jordanian-Palestinian federation exists next door in the new Iraq. Here Iraqi Kurds, Sunnis and Shia are all learning to govern and share power and their rivalries are much more pronounced than any existing between the Palestinians and Jordanians.

I would propose that when final borders between Israel and the expanded Jordan are settled upon that Israel would retain it's major West Bank settlements and give up predominantly Arab areas within Israel proper. This would keep peoples united and assure the Jewish character of Israel.

This is just one alternative proposal in the quest for Middle East peace. Another is the idea of a Israeli/Palestinian federation which we'll explore next...a Republic of Jerusalem, if you will.

Until next time....

Shmuel